Poll shows New Democracy retains lead despite OPEKEPE scandal fallout
A new Real Polls survey conducted for Protagon shows a decline in support for New Democracy (ND) following the recent OPEKEPE subsidy fraud revelations. While ND remains the leading party by a significant margin, the scandal has sparked growing public dissatisfaction, as reflected in both voter intention and trust in government accountability.
The poll, conducted between July 11–14 with a representative sample of 1,668 voters aged 17 and over, reveals a 2-point drop in New Democracy’s projected result, now at 29.4% (down from 31.5% in June). In raw voting intention, ND stands at 23%, compared to 27% in the previous poll.
PASOK and Opposition Movements
PASOK holds on to second place, though with a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points, now polling at 12.5%.
The Course of Freedom also saw a 1.3-point drop, landing at 11%.
On the rise are:
Hellenic Solution: now at just above 10% (from 8.4% in June),
Communist Party of Greece (KKE): climbing to 7.8% (from 7%),
Voice of Reason: rising notably to 5.6% (from 3.6%),
MERA25: up from 3.7% to 4.9%.
Voter Uncertainty on the Rise
A key indicator of political volatility is the sharp increase in undecided voters, now at 20.4% — up from 15.4% in June. Analysts attribute this to public disillusionment in the wake of the OPEKEPE case, with neither PASOK nor SYRIZA showing significant gains as a result of the controversy.
Responsibility and Public Trust
Asked who bears primary responsibility for the OPEKEPE scandal, 40.4% of respondents pointed to the “deeply dysfunctional state,” while 38.2% hold Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis personally accountable. Only around 9–10% blamed the Ministry of Rural Development or OPEKEPE itself.
In a striking result, 77% of respondents expressed no confidence in the Prime Minister’s ability to fight corruption, despite his public admission that the government “failed to correct systemic flaws in time.”
Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities
When asked what matters most in determining their vote, respondents prioritized:
Improvement of economic conditions and living standards: 68.9%
Fighting corruption and scandals: 57.1%
National defense and security: 38.7%
Meanwhile, 66% believe Greece’s international standing has not improved recently, pointing to broader dissatisfaction beyond domestic policy.
Government Backed on Immigration, Not on Reform
Despite growing criticism, the government's hard line on immigration received majority support:
38.9% favor sending migrants back to their countries of origin,
24.4% support preventing entry entirely.
Scenarios for New Parties
Speculation about new political movements from Alexis Tsipras or Antonis Samaras currently shows limited enthusiasm:
A hypothetical Tsipras-led party garnered 18.1% combined interest (“very likely” and “quite likely” to vote),
A potential Samaras party drew only 7.1%.
