Single-party rule unlikely, even coalition seems difficult
Greece’s upcoming general election is shaping up to be one of the toughest political battles in decades, with recent polls indicating that no party is likely to secure a parliamentary majority — or even form a viable coalition government.
Under the current electoral law, a party must win at least 25% of the vote to receive a seat bonus in Parliament. However, the ruling New Democracy (ND) appears to be struggling to reach that threshold.
According to the latest surveys by Alco and Pulse, ND stands at 23.3% and 24% respectively. These figures increase the risk of political deadlock if the electoral system effectively functions as one of full proportional representation.
Analysts warn that the growing number of smaller parties — many polling near 10% — could fragment the vote even further. The potential emergence of new parties led by former prime ministers Alexis Tsipras and Antonis Samaras, or by activist Maria Karystianou, whose daughter died in the 2023 Tempe train disaster, could make the balance of power even more complex.
The opposition remains divided. PASOK is polling below 12%, SYRIZA has weakened following Tsipras’s resignation, and the New Left remains outside Parliament. Meanwhile, the share of undecided voters has climbed to 21.5%, highlighting the absence of a credible alternative government bloc.
Although roughly half of voters identify as center-right, analysts note that Samaras could attract part of this base if he launches a new political formation.
In the end, the electoral bonus system, introduced in 2020, has made single-party government an increasingly distant possibility — and even coalition-building appears to be a major challenge.
