Excitement grows ahead of PASOK leadership runoff: Who benefits from low turnout?

Greece
Fri, 11 Oct 2024 8:55 GMT
The first round of PASOK's internal elections has set the stage for an intense second-round battle this Sunday, with Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas going head-to-head for the party's leadership.
Excitement grows ahead of PASOK leadership runoff: Who benefits from low turnout?

As both candidates brace for the final vote, the focus now shifts to voter turnout and its potential impact on the outcome.

Historical trends suggest a significant drop in participation for the second round, with voter turnout expected to decrease by about 25%. This could work in favor of Androulakis, who secured a lead in the first round. Political analysts, including Antonis Anzoletos from Skai.gr, have pointed out that such a decrease typically benefits the frontrunner, making the upcoming vote crucial for Doukas.

During the first round, 303,223 PASOK members and supporters cast their votes, with four eliminated candidates together securing 147,494 votes. This leaves around 70,000 to 80,000 voters up for grabs in the runoff. If turnout drops as expected, between 60,000 to 70,000 voters may abstain, giving Androulakis a potential advantage.

One notable aspect of this election is the absence of a debate between the two candidates, which may prevent undecided voters from making any last-minute decisions. Doukas has criticized Androulakis for avoiding a debate, which typically benefits the second-place candidate in such situations.

Both candidates are making final efforts to sway voters, especially in regions with lower participation in the first round. Attiki, in particular, is seen as a crucial battleground, with both campaigns focusing heavily on mobilizing voters there.

Androulakis has already visited Pirgos, a region where PASOK heavyweight Mihalis Katrinis has influence, while Doukas plans to make a stop in Larissa, where he performed well. At the same time, Doukas is concentrating his efforts on Attiki, hoping to boost his vote share in the populous area.

Meanwhile, both candidates are vying for endorsements from key figures like Anna Diamantopoulou and Pavlos Geroulanos, whose supporters accounted for 40.64% of the vote in the first round. However, their endorsements remain unannounced, fueling behind-the-scenes negotiations.

With the second round fast approaching, the big question remains: will low turnout play into Androulakis' hands, or can Doukas rally enough support to close the gap?

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