Global coffee prices surge 30% amid tariffs and lower yields
Coffee prices have seen a sharp rise in August, with Arabica futures soaring more than 30% on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), driven primarily by newly imposed U.S. tariffs and declining production levels, according to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe).
“The 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian coffee by the Trump administration, effective from August 6, has made exports to the U.S. unsustainable and disrupted global markets,” Cecafe’s president said.
Arabica futures traded in New York climbed to around $3.74 per pound on Friday, up from roughly $2.80 at the end of July.
As a result, U.S. importers are turning to alternative origins such as Central America and Colombia. However, these imports come with higher premiums, further pushing prices upward.
Supply-side factors are also painting a bleak picture. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, is facing lower yields this year. The 2025 Arabica harvest, now nearing completion, is expected to be about 10% below projected levels. Meanwhile, severe frosts earlier in the summer are likely to weigh on next year’s production as well.
Between late June and early July, two cold waves struck central and southern Brazil, with temperatures plunging below zero in many regions. Some areas experienced snowfall, with lows reaching −10 °C, damaging crops and fueling concerns about future supply.
