Iran war enters costly stalemate after six months
Washington has shifted the focus from military strikes to sanctions, oil revenues and Iran's trading partners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pledged to cut off the financial channels sustaining Tehran, while a US-led naval blockade has restricted Iranian oil exports and access to hard currency.
President Donald Trump on Thursday also hinted that Washington could sanction Chinese banks involved in trade with Iran, potentially escalating the confrontation with Beijing.
Asked whether he would target Chinese banks, Trump said: “Who said I'm not?”
China, Iran's biggest trading partner, said its cooperation with Tehran complies with international law and that it would protect its rights.
Analysts say Iran has decades of experience adapting to sanctions and may calculate that time is on its side.
Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat, said Washington appeared to be struggling to find a way out of the conflict.
Michael Knights of Horizon Engage said Iran could respond to growing pressure by raising the costs for Gulf states through attacks or disruption targeting shipping, ports and energy infrastructure while keeping negotiations open.
Washington rejects the idea of a stalemate, saying Iran's economy is deteriorating and its military has suffered major losses.
Economic pressure fuels wider risks
Iran's economic crisis is deepening. Annual inflation reached 66% in July, while food prices rose 128% year on year, according to Iran's Statistical Center.
The conflict has also disrupted global energy markets. Brent crude briefly topped $120 a barrel in April and is averaging about $90 this year, compared with roughly $70 in 2025.
The Strait of Hormuz disruptions have affected oil, refined fuels and fertilizer shipments, raising concerns about inflation and food prices.
Global stocks have largely shrugged off the conflict, supported by the artificial intelligence investment boom, while Gulf markets have suffered heavier losses.
No clear endgame
Gulf states want the conflict contained but fear Iran retaining the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington wants Tehran to surrender that leverage without giving Iran a role in managing the waterway, while Iran seeks an end to the blockade without appearing to concede.
With neither side showing signs of backing down, analysts say the most likely outcome remains a prolonged and costly stalemate.
