Saudi Arabia weighs offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb
Saudi Arabia is preparing for a possible military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, with Riyadh weighing a limited operation to retake territory around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait or a broader campaign across several fronts, according to regional and Western officials familiar with the preparations.
The operation could begin within weeks and would rely on Saudi-backed Yemeni forces on the ground, supported by Saudi airstrikes, the officials said. The United States is providing intelligence, including targeting information, while other regional and European allies are supplying mainly defensive military assistance.
The plans have not previously been reported. Six officials, including Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats, spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Bab el-Mandeb becomes central objective
The proposed offensive would seek to reverse recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s western coast and restore access to Bab el-Mandeb, a vital maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
The strait is a major route for commercial shipping between Europe and Asia. Houthi control of territory around the waterway would give the group greater leverage over international maritime traffic and increase Saudi concerns about regional security.
Riyadh is considering two main options, according to the officials. The first would be a focused assault aimed at retaking coastal areas around Bab el-Mandeb. The second would be a much broader campaign involving several fronts, including Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could potentially be mobilized depending on the scale of the operation, the officials said.
Western diplomats and a Gulf official said Saudi Arabia believes it cannot return to peace negotiations with the Houthis while the group retains control of territory around Bab el-Mandeb.
Timing remains uncertain
There is no confirmed timetable for an offensive. Estimates from officials familiar with the preparations ranged from within days to a launch after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected Riyadh to favor a limited operation rather than risk becoming involved in another prolonged conflict.
Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognized government after the Houthis captured Sanaa and large areas of the country.
A truce reached in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis resumed attacks involving missiles and drones against Saudi-linked shipping and oil infrastructure amid the wider regional conflict.
The Houthis have become one of Iran’s most powerful regional allies as fighting has reshaped the balance of power across the Middle East.
Us support remains constrained
Washington remains Saudi Arabia’s principal security partner and is providing intelligence and military advisers to support Saudi air operations, according to a Western diplomat.
However, direct U.S. combat involvement is expected to remain limited. Reuters previously reported that U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Saudi requests for direct American military support, including airstrikes.
Türkiye and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment to Saudi Arabia under wider defense arrangements.
A Pakistani government official said four cargo aircraft delivered equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone systems to Aden last month. Pakistani military advisers are also working with Saudi counterparts in support of Yemeni forces, according to Pakistani, Gulf and Western officials.
Saudi Arabia has additionally asked allies for more defensive systems to protect oil facilities and other critical infrastructure from Houthi missile and drone attacks.
Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the kingdom’s borders and assist with missile and drone interceptions, according to a Pakistani official. Islamabad has not decided to deploy those forces inside Yemen for combat operations.
France has also announced plans to send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
Anti-Houthi forces face unity problems
A Saudi-backed ground offensive would depend heavily on Yemen’s fragmented anti-Houthi forces, many of which were armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier phases of the civil war.
Analysts have questioned whether the various factions can maintain the unity and organization needed for a sustained campaign.
The anti-Houthi camp became increasingly divided last winter after UAE-backed southern fighters attempted to seize territory in eastern Yemen and announced plans for secession. Saudi-backed forces subsequently defeated them in a series of clashes.
Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi said the outcome of any offensive would depend largely on the performance of the Yemeni forces leading the ground campaign.
Missile attacks raise escalation risks
The possible Saudi offensive comes as missile, drone and air attacks have intensified.
The Houthis said Friday that Saudi forces had carried out 94 strikes against areas under their control during the previous 24 hours, claiming 1,350 Saudi strikes since the latest fighting began. The claims could not be independently verified.
The Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government said it had intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles launched toward Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia.
The coalition said a day earlier that it had intercepted two ballistic missiles over Khamis Mushait and Jazan, along with four drones over Khamis Mushait.
Saudi Civil Defense said debris from an intercepted Houthi missile fell in residential areas of Khamis Mushait on Thursday, damaging buildings and vehicles but causing no casualties.
On Saturday, Saudi authorities said shrapnel from another intercepted ballistic missile injured one person in Ahad Rafidah governorate in the Asir region.
The latest escalation risks opening another major front in a Middle East already destabilized by the war that followed the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and subsequent regional fighting.
Any Saudi ground offensive, particularly one extending beyond the Bab el-Mandeb area, could further widen the conflict and complicate efforts to restore a political settlement in Yemen.
Source:DailySabah
