Germany’s political turmoil: Migration, terror and the rise of the far-right
Germany awoke to a new crisis following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Just days later, on Nov. 7, 2024, the "traffic light" coalition collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz failed to secure a budget agreement, triggering the country’s second early election since reunification. This political upheaval comes amid a series of deepening crises that have shaken Germany’s foundations – economic stagnation, an ongoing migration wave, rising security concerns and growing far-right populism.
The aftermath of the pandemic, coupled with the financial strain of the Russia-Ukraine war, has led to soaring energy prices and a recession entering its third consecutive year. Migration remains a contentious issue, with waves of refugees from Ukraine and continued migration from the Middle East and Africa fueling public debate. The political climate has further deteriorated with a surge in terrorist attacks – three in the past two months alone – heightening public anxiety over security and immigration policies.
At the heart of this turmoil lies the growing influence of far-right and populist movements. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to become the second-largest party, while the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has gained significant traction, particularly in eastern Germany. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), once a centrist conservative party under Angela Merkel, has steadily drifted further to the right. Its recent passage of a non-binding immigration resolution with AfD support has sparked concerns about its willingness to align with extremist rhetoric.
Each crisis – the economic downturn, migration, terrorism and shifting political dynamics – has reshaped Germany’s trajectory. With the 2025 snap election approaching, the intersection of these issues is redefining the country’s political landscape. In this context, how do migration, national security and the far-right’s rise are interwoven in Germany’s current political turbulence?
Surging terror attacks
Germany has witnessed five terrorist attacks in the past 12 months, with a particularly alarming pattern emerging in the last two months, during which three major attacks have taken place. The first of these recent attacks occurred on Dec. 20, 2024, when a Saudi-born doctor, known for his anti-Islam, anti-immigrant views and support for the AfD, drove his vehicle into a Christmas market, killing five people and injuring over 200 others. Just a month later, on Jan. 22, 2025, an Afghan refugee carried out a knife attack, killing two German citizens and leaving two others wounded. The most recent attack happened on Feb. 13, when another Afghan refugee drove his car into a crowd of protesters, injuring more than 28 people.
Looking at these incidents from a broader perspective, the first and deadliest attack stands out not only for its brutality but also for its timing. It occurred just four days after Chancellor Olaf Scholz failed a confidence vote in the Bundestag, confirming that Germany would head for early elections. Shortly after, on Dec. 27, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier officially announced that the elections would take place on Feb. 23. The shock of the December attack had not yet worn off when another attack followed in January, during a time of political uncertainty, further intensifying the debate over immigration and security.
Prior to these recent incidents, two other attacks in 2024 – one in Mannheim in May and another in Aschaffenburg in August – were carried out by Afghan and Syrian refugees. These individuals were reportedly under police surveillance and had deportation orders issued against them, yet they were still able to carry out their attacks. These cases sparked intense criticism from the far-right AfD and the opposition CDU, both of whom accused the government of failing to protect German citizens.
Against this backdrop of heightened security concerns and a looming election, the CDU made a bold move on Jan. 29, 2025. The party introduced a five-point non-binding resolution in the Bundestag, calling for stricter border controls, faster deportation of undocumented migrants and other restrictive immigration measures. This proposal closely aligned with the AfD’s stance on migration, and with the far-right party’s support, it was approved in the Bundestag.
The CDU’s decision to pass an anti-immigration resolution with the backing of the AfD sent shock waves through German politics. It was widely seen as the moment when the so-called "Brandmauer" – the political firewall preventing mainstream parties from collaborating with the far-right – was breached. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel publicly condemned CDU leader Friedrich Merz, while nationwide protests erupted against both the CDU and the far-right. The episode has since fueled concerns over the normalization of extremist politics in Germany, further polarizing an already divided society.
As the political turmoil continued, Germany was shaken by yet another terrorist attack on Feb. 13, further deepening the ongoing crisis. This has led to an inevitable question: Is there a connection between these events and the U.S. presidential election? The timing of the coalition’s collapse immediately after Trump’s victory, the surge in terrorist attacks following Scholz’s failed confidence vote, and the open support for the AfD and the far-right from figures like Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance have fueled speculation about whether Germany is facing a coordinated political operation.
Moreover, the recent attempt by the CDU, under Merz’s leadership, to push a non-binding resolution on migration has intensified fears of dismantling the "Brandmauer" – the political firewall that has long prevented mainstream parties from cooperating with the far-right. This move has sparked concerns that it could pave the way for a potential CDU-AfD coalition after the election. At the same time, the CDU appears to be strategically filling the space occupied by the far-right, positioning itself as the more legitimate alternative for conservative voters. By doing so, the party seems to signal to the Trump administration that the CDU – not the AfD – should be its preferred political ally in Germany. Whether this is part of a deliberate long-term strategy or simply an opportunistic shift remains unclear, but one thing is evident: The CDU is gradually moving further to the right.
What makes the situation even more intriguing is the stance of Germany’s rising populist parties, the AfD and the BSW, on the Ukraine-Russia war. Both parties oppose continued support for Ukraine and advocate for diplomatic solutions, a position that aligns more closely with Russia’s strategic interests. Meanwhile, the new U.S. administration appears to have established a favorable relationship with these populist movements, particularly the AfD.
In summary, Germany’s domestic political landscape, the shifting dynamics in Eastern Europe and the signals coming from across the Atlantic suggest that far-right and populist forces are likely to gain even more ground. The months ahead will reveal whether these developments are part of a broader geopolitical shift or simply the result of internal political fragmentation within Germany.
By Ayhan Sarı for DailySabah: Lecturer at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Turkish-German University, security and foreign policy expert at the Turkish Research Foundation
