Greece braces for African dust, storms and unusually high temperatures

Greece is set to experience an unusually warm and unsettled weather pattern over the coming days, with temperatures reaching up to 26 degrees Celsius, strong southerly winds, African dust and episodes of muddy rain, according to ERTnews meteorologist Olga Papavouli.

Temperatures are expected to remain significantly above seasonal averages, with local deviations reaching as much as 7 degrees Celsius above normal for mid-November.

However, the mild conditions will come alongside increased humidity, low clouds, fog and reduced visibility, while western parts of the country face periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

A gradual change in atmospheric conditions is expected from Sunday, when northerly winds will begin to replace the southerlies, bringing a reduction in African dust and a temporary drop in temperatures.

Thursday: Southerly winds strengthen as African dust arrives

Thursday will be characterised by increased humidity, low clouds and occasional fog, particularly in inland areas of western and northern Greece.

Local muddy showers are expected mainly in western Greece and the eastern island regions, although rainfall will generally remain limited.

Southerly winds will strengthen to 6-7 Beaufort, transporting warmer air masses from North Africa and carrying increasing concentrations of dust towards the country.

Despite the cloudy conditions, temperatures will remain high, reaching 23-24C across eastern and southern areas, with some locations potentially recording 25C.

Friday: Storms in western Greece and winds reaching 8 Beaufort

Weather conditions will become more unsettled on Friday as a weather front associated with a low-pressure system approaches from northern Europe.

The strongest rainfall and thunderstorms are expected in western and northwestern Greece, particularly around the northern Ionian Sea, western coastal areas and western Central Greece.

Some storms could become locally severe, while scattered showers are forecast in other mainland regions and parts of the Aegean.

Southerly winds will reach 6-7 Beaufort across much of the country and locally up to 8 Beaufort before gradually weakening from the west during the evening.

African dust concentrations will also increase, particularly across western, central and southern Greece, potentially affecting air quality and visibility.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels, with maximum values around or above 20C in many areas and locally reaching 25C in the north.

Saturday: Strong thunderstorms in eastern Macedonia and Thrace

Saturday is expected to bring another deterioration in weather conditions, particularly in western and northern Greece, as a new weather disturbance moves across the country.

Rain and thunderstorms will initially affect western regions before gradually spreading eastwards.

From midday through the afternoon, the strongest storms are expected in eastern Macedonia and Thrace, with the possibility of further activity in the northeastern Aegean by the evening.

Southerly winds will initially remain strong at 6-7 Beaufort but will gradually weaken. Northerly winds will begin developing in northern Greece and the northeastern Aegean during the afternoon.

African dust will remain noticeable, particularly in eastern and southern parts of the country.

Despite the unsettled weather, Saturday could be one of the warmest days of the period in eastern Greece, with temperatures reaching 23-25C and locally 26C.

The highest temperatures are expected in eastern Central Greece, southern Evia, eastern Peloponnese, Thessaly and Crete. Northern Greece will experience a drop in temperatures.

Sunday: Northerly winds bring cleaner air and cooler conditions

A gradual change in the weather pattern is expected on Sunday as northerly winds become established across the Aegean.

Winds in the northern Aegean could reach 6-7 Beaufort, helping push away warmer air masses from North Africa and reducing concentrations of African dust.

Rainfall will become more limited, although scattered showers are possible in eastern Greece. Local thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the northeastern Aegean, particularly during the early morning hours.

Temperatures will begin to fall, moving closer to seasonal averages on Sunday and especially Monday.

Temperatures could rise again from November 17

The return to more typical autumn conditions may prove short-lived.

According to Papavouli, the latest forecast models indicate a possible new rise in temperatures from Tuesday, November 17, as southerly winds could return.

This would bring another period of above-average temperatures after the brief cooler spell.

December also expected to be warmer than normal

Long-range forecasts suggest that the unusually warm conditions could continue into December.

According to an analysis of 400 forecast scenarios cited by the National Observatory of Athens' Meteo service, southeastern Europe is expected to experience temperatures above the 1993-2016 average.

Around 82% of the scenarios point to above-average temperatures, with the projected average deviation standing at 1.13C.

The analysis indicates:

• 25% probability of temperatures being 0-1C above average.
• 31% probability of temperatures being 1-2C above average.
• 26% probability of temperatures exceeding the average by more than 2C.

Warmer-than-normal conditions are also forecast across much of Europe, with temperature deviations exceeding 0.5C.

However, Meteo cautions that long-range forecasts carry considerable uncertainty and cannot accurately predict specific daily or local weather conditions.

The outlook points to a potentially warmer-than-usual start to winter, although shorter-term weather developments will determine how conditions evolve across Greece.