Cigarette prices in Greece could rise to €14 per pack under proposed EU tax reforms
Proposed changes to EU tobacco taxation could push the average price of a 20-cigarette pack in Greece from €4.17 to as much as €13.82, according to scenarios examined by the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE). Athens has warned that sharp tax increases could fuel the illicit tobacco trade.
Cigarette prices in Greece could rise significantly under proposed changes to the European Union's tobacco taxation framework, with some scenarios suggesting that a pack of 20 cigarettes could cost nearly €14.
The issue is being discussed by EU finance ministers as part of deliberations at the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) in Brussels. The Greek government has expressed serious reservations about the potential impact of a sharp increase in excise duties on tobacco products.
Scenarios examined by Greece's Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) illustrate the scale of possible price increases. Depending on the combination of fixed and ad valorem excise duties, the average retail price of a 20-cigarette pack could reach €11.58 or €13.82, compared with the 2025 reference price of €4.17.
These figures are hypothetical projections rather than approved tax increases or confirmed future retail prices. They nevertheless demonstrate the potential financial burden under the more stringent taxation scenarios being considered.
KEPE SCENARIOS SHOW POTENTIAL PRICE INCREASES
KEPE's analysis examines 12 different combinations of fixed and ad valorem tax rates.
The baseline calculation uses an average cigarette price of €4.17 per pack, with a fixed excise duty of €1.65 and an ad valorem rate of 26%.
Under scenarios involving a 45% ad valorem tax rate, the average price would increase to:
€9.06 with a fixed tax of €2.60.
€11.58 with a fixed tax of €3.50.
€13.82 with a fixed tax of €4.30.
In the most expensive of these scenarios, the projected increase would amount to 231.5% compared with the 2025 reference price.
The study also considers more aggressive scenarios involving an ad valorem tax rate of 63%. Under these assumptions, the average price could theoretically reach €18.29, €23.39 or even €27.92, depending on the fixed excise duty applied.
The highest figure represents a potential increase of 569.6%.
The calculations assume that the entire additional tax burden is passed on to consumers, while manufacturers' profit margins remain unchanged. Actual retail prices would therefore depend on the final tax framework and the commercial decisions of tobacco companies.
GREECE WARNS OF GROWING ILLICIT TOBACCO TRADE
The Greek government has expressed reservations about the proposed tax increases, warning that a sharp rise in the prices of legally sold tobacco products could encourage the expansion of the illicit tobacco market.
Athens argues that as the price gap between legal and illegal cigarettes widens, consumers may have greater incentives to turn to the black market.
Such a development could reduce legal tobacco sales and lead to losses in tax revenue, potentially undermining part of the additional fiscal benefits that higher excise duties are intended to generate.
Greece is therefore advocating more moderate tax increases and a longer transition period to allow the market to adjust gradually rather than facing abrupt changes.
Similar concerns have also been raised by other EU member states, including Italy and Romania.
For now, the proposed prices remain scenarios under consideration rather than confirmed changes to cigarette prices in Greece.
Source: Thraki.com.gr, November 10, 2026. KEPE scenario figures as reported in the original article.
