Greece faces 400,000 fewer births over the next 20 years, demographic study warns
Greece could record approximately 400,000 fewer births over the next two decades, highlighting the country's deepening demographic crisis, according to research by Byron Kotzamanis, a retired professor of Demography at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM).
The study points to a long-term decline in births, with the number of newborns in Greece falling to an estimated 65,000 in 2026, compared with an annual average of approximately 150,000 during the period between 1951 and 1980.
According to Kotzamanis, births had already declined to around 100,000 annually during the 1990s. Although a modest recovery was recorded in the 2000s, the downward trend subsequently resumed.
BIRTHS DOWN 25% IN THE PAST DECADE
The demographic decline is also evident in comparisons between successive decades. Greece recorded approximately 920,000 births between 2011 and 2020, while the total for the current decade (2021–2030) is not expected to exceed 700,000, representing a decline of around 25%.
Kotzamanis notes that the downward trend predates the post-war period. Between 1932 and 1940, when Greece had a considerably smaller population, the country recorded an average of approximately 118,500 births annually. This compares with around 154,000 per year between 1955 and 1964.
Taking a longer historical perspective, the researcher attributes the contraction in births primarily to the declining number of children born to successive generations, a trend that began with generations born in the final decades of the 19th century.
A BROADER TRANSFORMATION IN FAMILY LIFE
The decline in fertility is not unique to Greece but is part of a wider demographic transformation affecting developed countries.
Kotzamanis explains that fertility rates across Western and Northern Europe began falling among generations born well before the end of the 19th century. The trend was temporarily reversed among women born during the interwar period, who generally had more children than their parents, contributing to the post-war baby boom.
However, declining fertility resumed among women born after the Second World War, albeit at different rates across countries.
The researcher also links these demographic changes to profound transformations in reproductive behaviour and family structures. These include changing attitudes towards marriage, motherhood, sexuality, child-rearing and education, as well as new approaches to socialisation and the pursuit of individual goals within relationships.
According to Kotzamanis, these developments have contributed to the emergence of a new family model that differs substantially from traditional structures.
The findings underline the scale and historical depth of Greece's demographic challenge, suggesting that declining births cannot be explained solely by recent economic conditions but must also be understood in the context of broader social and generational changes.
