Eurostat warns of sharp decline in Europe’s working-age population

Europe’s working-age population is set to shrink dramatically over the coming decades, intensifying pressure on public finances, labour markets and social security systems, according to new long-term demographic projections published by Eurostat.

As Europe continues to age, several countries — including Latvia, Lithuania, Greece, Bulgaria and Italy — are leading the trend of population decline, largely driven by persistently low birth rates.

Europe Is Growing Older — Fast

Eurostat’s projections show that the median age of the EU population is expected to rise by five years, from 44.4 in 2022 to 49.4 by 2070, marking a profound shift in the continent’s age structure.

Key demographic changes expected by 2070 include:

• The share of people aged 65 and over rising from 21% in 2022 to 30% across the EU
• The population aged 80 and above increasing from 6% to 13%, more than doubling in most member states
• The proportion of young people aged 0–19 falling from 20% to 18%
• The share of the working-age population (20–64) declining from 59% to 52%

Fewer Workers, More Dependents

The rapid growth in the elderly population reflects both the ageing of large post-war generations born in the 1950s and 1960s and continued gains in life expectancy. At the same time, the working-age population is shrinking due to low fertility rates and a declining number of women of reproductive age.

Crucially, net migration flows are not sufficient to offset these ageing trends, Eurostat notes.

As a result, the old-age dependency ratio is set to rise sharply. By 2070, there will be 10 people aged 65 and over for every 17 individuals of working age, compared with a much more favourable ratio today.

Major Impact on Public Finances

According to Eurostat’s latest estimates, the EU labour force is expected to shrink by 12% — around 25 million people — between 2022 and 2070.

This demographic contraction will translate into fewer taxpayers and social security contributors, placing significant strain on public revenues at a time when age-related expenditures are rising.

By 2070, the EU is projected to spend 25.6% of GDP on age-related policies, with 7.3% of GDP allocated to healthcare alone, making it the second-largest category of age-related public spending after pensions.

Eurostat warns that population ageing, combined with existing economic challenges, will significantly intensify long-term fiscal pressures across member states, raising urgent questions about labour supply, productivity, migration policy and the sustainability of Europe’s welfare systems.