Adana earthquakes renew warnings over Türkiye’s seismic risks
A sequence of earthquakes in Adana and neighboring Osmaniye has renewed concerns over Türkiye’s wider seismic risks, with experts warning that several active fault systems across the country remain capable of producing powerful earthquakes.
The sequence began with earthquakes measuring 4.8 and 4.9 in Adana before a magnitude 5.2 tremor struck Osmaniye. Experts said the activity should be closely monitored, although there was no indication that a major earthquake was imminent.
Geologist Professor Osman Bektas said the gradual increase in magnitude was concerning because the tremors had developed from smaller events into the 5.2 earthquake.
He said the fault may have been releasing energy through repeated earthquakes in the magnitude 4 to 5 range since 2023, but warned that the latest sequence could potentially be followed by a stronger earthquake.
“There is a possibility of an earthquake above 6, somewhere between 6 and 7,” Bektas said, while stressing that residents should not panic.
He noted that the Savrun fault has shown a different pattern from the faults involved in the Feb. 6 earthquakes and has produced repeated moderate tremors over the past three years.
Same tectonic system under scrutiny
Professor Suleyman Pampal said the Adana and Osmaniye earthquakes occurred on faults belonging to the same broader tectonic system.
According to Pampal, the first earthquake occurred south of Saimbeyli near what he calls the Yarbi Fault, while the Osmaniye earthquake was associated with an east-west fault near Sumbas.
He said many faults in the region are active and generally capable of producing earthquakes of around magnitude 5 to 6. The larger Yarbi Fault, however, could potentially generate a stronger earthquake if it ruptures.
Pampal said the region contains numerous active faults capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher.
Soft ground raises damage concerns
Experts also highlighted the vulnerability of parts of Cukurova and northern Adana, where buildings have been constructed on alluvial ground.
Alluvial soil consists of loose sediments deposited by rivers and can amplify earthquake shaking. Pampal warned that underground water and soft ground could increase seismic acceleration and damage, particularly in areas with heavy, multi-story reinforced concrete buildings.
He also pointed to the risk of liquefaction, in which water-saturated soil can temporarily lose its strength during intense shaking, potentially destabilizing buildings.
Pampal said earthquake-resistant construction should take local ground conditions into account, noting that compliance with building regulations alone may not eliminate risks posed by unsuitable soil.
Marmara and eastern Türkiye remain exposed
The experts also identified several other fault systems that continue to draw concern.
Pampal said the Yedisu Fault between Erzincan and Karlıova has not ruptured since 1874 and could generate an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 7.5.
The Central Marmara Fault near Istanbul also remains under close scrutiny. Pampal said part of the fault, located roughly 10 to 15 kilometers from the coast, has not ruptured since the 1766 earthquake and could produce an earthquake of around magnitude 7 if it ruptures.
He also pointed to unruptured sections stretching from Çelikhan toward Bingöl, as well as the Malatya and Ovacık faults, which he said could potentially generate earthquakes around magnitude 7.
Other areas of concern include active faults around Kayseri, the Ecemiş Fault toward the Mediterranean, and seismic gaps in western Türkiye, including near Sındırgı and the Pamukkale Fault around Denizli.
Experts stress nationwide preparedness
The latest earthquakes have once again highlighted Türkiye’s complex and active tectonic environment.
While the Adana and Osmaniye sequence does not by itself establish that a major earthquake is imminent, experts say the country’s numerous active faults mean earthquake preparedness must remain a nationwide priority, with particular attention to vulnerable ground conditions and building safety.
Source:AA
