Greece faces demographic extinction within a century, study warns

A groundbreaking study from the European University of Cyprus has issued a stark warning: Greece may face demographic extinction within the next 110 years if current population trends continue unchecked.

Using Eurostat data and exponential decay models, the study projects that Greece’s population could fall below 6 million by 2100, shrink to under 3 million by 2150, and plummet to just 1.5 million by 2200. In a dire scenario, the country could witness its last natural birth between 2135 and 2148, effectively marking the end of self-sustaining population growth.

A Nation in Decline

The report labels this demographic trajectory as “the most severe crisis” in Greece’s modern history. Births may fall to just 22,000 annually by 2100, decline to 1,000 by 2135, and approach zero by mid-century unless major interventions are made.

Root Causes

The study identifies multiple factors fueling the collapse:

Low fertility rates (currently 1.3 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1)

Aging population

Economic instability and job insecurity

Mass emigration

Inadequate family policies and weak long-term planning

According to ELSTAT, only 85,000 births were recorded in 2023, continuing a steady downward spiral.

Social and National Impacts

The consequences are already visible. Village schools are closing, healthcare services are overwhelmed by aging citizens, and pension systems are under extreme strain, with fewer than one working-age person for every 1.5 retirees.

Beyond economics, the shrinking population could affect national defense, housing markets, and even geopolitical stability in sparsely populated border regions.

Time Is Running Out

Despite the grim forecast, the study leaves a narrow window for hope. It emphasizes that bold, coordinated, and sustained policy action—including pro-family incentives, immigration reform, and economic support for young families—could help slow or reverse the trend. Some European nations have succeeded in stabilizing their populations, offering models Greece could adapt.

But without urgent action, the report warns, Greece may become the first EU nation to experience natural demographic extinction.