Irregular EU border crossings decline—except via Mediterranean routes

Irregular migrant entries into the European Union have fallen by 22% in the first nine months of 2025, according to new data from Frontex. However, crossings via the Central and Western Mediterranean continue to rise, driven largely by departures from Libya and Algeria.

Frontex recorded 133,400 irregular entries between January and September 2025, with significant declines on several key migration routes:

Eastern land border: -36%

Western Balkans: -47%

Atlantic route from West Africa: -58%

In contrast, Central Mediterranean crossings increased by 2%, reaching nearly 50,900 arrivals, as departures from Libya rose by 50%, offsetting a decline from Tunisia. In the Western Mediterranean, crossings surged 28%, with Algeria responsible for the majority of this year’s detections.

The Eastern Mediterranean also showed signs of renewed activity. After a summer lull, arrivals through the Libya–Crete corridor spiked in September—280% higher than the same month last year.

Despite ongoing EU deals with North African countries aimed at reducing departures, nearly 1,300 migrants have died crossing the Mediterranean so far this year, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Amid growing concern over Libya’s role in the migrant flow, the European Commission is set to host representatives from both Tripoli and Benghazi on October 15–16 in Brussels, following a meeting with Frontex in Warsaw on October 14.

This marks the first time the EU will officially engage with authorities from both eastern and western Libya, despite previous tensions and international criticism over its support for the Libyan coast guard, often accused of abuses and ties to trafficking networks.

The meetings aim to revive stalled cooperation and manage migration flows more effectively ahead of upcoming EU elections and rising political pressure within the bloc.