Sweden heads to polls as welfare shapes race and right-wing seeks power
Opinion polls have generally put the center-left opposition, led by the Social Democrats, ahead of the governing center-right bloc. But the gap has narrowed in recent weeks, leaving the outcome uncertain.
The Sweden Democrats, once isolated by mainstream parties because of their far-right roots, have become a major political force and a key ally of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's government.
Welfare issues dominate campaign
Unlike the previous two elections, when migration and gang violence were central campaign issues, healthcare, education, elderly care and welfare have gained greater prominence.
Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor at Södertörn University, told Anadolu that migration has fallen noticeably and violent crime is lower than it was several years ago.
PerOla Öberg, a professor at Uppsala University, said healthcare, education and elderly care were among the issues most important to voters.
The Social Democrats have sought to capitalize on those concerns by presenting themselves as defenders of the welfare state. They have proposed higher taxes on banks and high-income earners to fund healthcare and schools while supporting households facing rising living costs.
Security remains important
Sweden has faced years of organized crime, shootings and bombings, prompting successive governments to introduce tougher laws and expand police powers.
Aylott said a Social Democrat-led government would probably retain much of the current government's law-and-order policies.
The Sweden Democrats have called for even tougher measures.
The convergence on some security policies means the election is increasingly focused on which parties voters trust to address crime while maintaining the welfare state, Aylott said.
Sweden Democrats seek cabinet role
The Sweden Democrats' role in government is one of the election's biggest questions.
After the 2022 election, the party became a key parliamentary ally of Kristersson's center-right government while remaining outside the Cabinet. It gained considerable influence, particularly over migration and law-and-order policy.
The four parties in the right-wing bloc have agreed that the Sweden Democrats can enter government if the bloc wins a parliamentary majority.
Such a move would mark a significant shift for the party, taking it from an outside supporter to a formal government participant.
The party is currently polling at around 20%, according to the article.
4% threshold could prove decisive
Swedish parties must receive at least 4% of the national vote to secure parliamentary representation.
The Liberal Party has struggled to consistently clear that threshold in opinion polls. If it fails, the right-wing bloc could lose seats that may be crucial to forming a government.
The result could therefore depend not only on which bloc receives more votes, but also on whether smaller parties secure enough support to enter parliament.
Opposition faces coalition challenge
A center-left victory would not necessarily translate into an easy path to government.
The Social Democrats could emerge as the largest party but would likely need support from several other parties. The Left Party wants representation in any government it supports, while the Center Party has ruled out joining a Cabinet that includes the Left Party.
That could leave Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson facing difficult negotiations.
One possibility is a minority government led by the Social Democrats and Greens, relying on outside support from the Left and Center parties.
Close result could mean lengthy talks
Three polls conducted during the final week put the four left-wing parties at about 50%, compared with roughly 47% for the four parties on the right.
If the right wins, negotiations could focus on the Sweden Democrats' demand for ministerial positions. If the center-left wins, Andersson would have to reconcile competing demands from several parties.
After the 2018 election, it took 134 days to form a government. Analysts do not expect negotiations to last that long this time, but a close result could still lead to prolonged talks.
Whatever the outcome, analysts expect the election to bring gradual changes rather than a fundamental political shift, with welfare, security and the future role of the Sweden Democrats likely to shape the next government.
Source:AA
