Le Pen leads French presidential poll with up to 36%, Mélenchon comes second
Marine Le Pen leads the race for France's 2027 presidential election with between 34% and 36% of voting intentions, while left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon ranks second with 18% to 19%, according to a new Toluna Harris Interactive poll. A hypothetical second-round matchup also gives Le Pen a 68% to 32% lead over Mélenchon.
Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN), and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed (La France Insoumise – LFI), have consolidated their positions at the top of the presidential race, according to a survey published on November 9.
The poll, conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive between November 3 and 5, examined five different first-round electoral scenarios. Le Pen received between 34% and 36% of voting intentions across these scenarios, while Mélenchon secured between 18% and 19%, placing him in second position in all five configurations.
The survey involved 2,101 registered voters, drawn from a representative sample of 2,436 adults aged 18 and over. It was conducted online using quota-based sampling and statistical adjustments.
Le Pen's results are broadly consistent with the previous month's survey, which placed her between 35% and 37%. Mélenchon's support, meanwhile, has increased in several of the scenarios examined.
LE PEN LEADS IN HYPOTHETICAL RUN-OFF
The survey also examined potential second-round matchups. In a hypothetical contest between Le Pen and Mélenchon, the National Rally leader would receive 68% of the votes cast, compared with 32% for the France Unbowed leader.
Le Pen also leads in hypothetical run-offs against other potential candidates, securing 60% against Raphaël Glucksmann and 58% against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.
However, the poll found that between 27% and 30% of respondents, depending on the second-round scenario, would favour abstention or casting a blank or invalid ballot.
MACRON'S SECOND TERM NEARS ITS END
The 2027 presidential election will mark the end of Emmanuel Macron's second and final five-year term. The changing political landscape has seen the traditional political centre face increasing challenges from both the right and the left.
Mélenchon has previously contested three presidential elections, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never qualified for the second round.
Le Pen has also run in all three elections, reaching the run-off in 2017 and 2022, where she was defeated by Macron on both occasions.
The latest survey highlights the growing prominence of both candidates ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, although the results represent voting intentions at the time of the survey rather than a prediction of the eventual election outcome.
