Annual dementia cases could more than double by 2050
The number of people developing dementia worldwide each year could rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million by 2050, more than doubling over the period, according to an international study published in JAMA Neurology.
The research analyzed data from 38,418 participants across 22 population-based studies in 18 countries and territories spanning six continents. During more than 287,000 person-years of follow-up, 3,001 participants developed dementia.
Researchers calculated a global age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of 9.7 new cases per 1,000 person-years.
The projection for 2050 was based on applying the study’s age- and sex-specific incidence rates to expected population figures. It assumes that these rates remain unchanged, meaning the projected increase is driven largely by population growth and ageing.
Women and poorer countries face higher rates
The study found higher dementia incidence among women, at 10.6 new cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.6 among men.
The difference was also pronounced across income groups. Low- and middle-income countries recorded 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries.
“For the first time, we can compare dementia incidence across a geographically diverse group of populations using the same statistical approach, giving us a clearer picture of where and among whom new cases are occurring,” lead author Ashleigh Vella of the University of New South Wales’ Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing said.
“What stands out is that dementia incidence is not evenly distributed. We see higher rates among women and in low- and middle-income countries,” she added.
Health systems urged to prepare
Researchers said the findings could help governments anticipate growing demand for diagnosis, treatment, long-term care and support services, particularly in lower-resource countries that have historically been underrepresented in dementia research.
More than 57 million people currently live with dementia worldwide, while previous research has projected that the total could approach 150 million by 2050.
Study co-author Henry Brodaty warned that the projected number of new cases would place “enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems, and economies around the world.”
He called for action to reduce modifiable risk factors, identify people at risk earlier and improve diagnosis, treatment and care.
The researchers emphasized the need for governments to prepare for population ageing rather than relying solely on responding after people develop dementia.
Source:AA
