Air defenses and arsenals: How long can the US, Israel and Iran sustain war?
Five days into the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, analysts say the key question is no longer only the intensity of the attacks but how long each side can sustain the fight.
Behind the waves of missiles and airstrikes lies a broader calculation: whether military stockpiles, air defense systems and political will can support a prolonged campaign.
US President Donald Trump has suggested the operation could last “four to five weeks” or longer, but analysts say the timeline will ultimately depend on military inventories, economic pressures and each side’s willingness to absorb losses.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, pointed to historical precedent. The longest US air campaign in recent decades, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, lasted about 90 days.
“I tend to think this one will be much shorter than 90 days,” Bohl said, citing limited political appetite in the US and potential energy market shocks that could shorten the conflict.
US firepower and stockpiles
The United States has deployed significant forces to the region. According to the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), more than 50,000 troops, 200 fighter jets and two aircraft carriers are involved in operations.
CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper said US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets in Iran using more than 2,000 munitions.
Some US media reports, citing Pentagon leaks, suggest certain missile stockpiles could run low within a week or two if the pace of operations continues. Trump has dismissed those concerns, saying US supplies remain strong.
Analysts note that interceptor missiles—used to shoot down incoming threats—could become a constraint if Iranian attacks intensify.
Joze Pelayo of the Atlantic Council warned that US interceptor stocks could face pressure “within days” due to the scale of Iranian strikes.
Iran’s missile and drone arsenal
Iran has relied mainly on ballistic missiles and drones in its response.
CENTCOM says Tehran has launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones since the conflict began, including the Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drone, which can travel up to about 2,000 kilometers and is relatively cheap to produce.
Before last year’s brief war with Israel, Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile was estimated at between 2,500 and 3,000. Analysts believe roughly half were used during that conflict, though Tehran has likely replenished some supplies.
Bohl said Iran probably still has several weeks’ worth of shorter-range missiles and could extend that timeline by reducing the pace of launches.
Israel has carried out extensive airstrikes while relying heavily on its layered missile defense network.
The system includes the Iron Dome for short-range rockets, David’s Sling for medium-range threats and the Arrow missile defense system for long-range ballistic missiles, along with US-supplied THAAD interceptors.
Israeli media reports say the military is planning for at least one to two more weeks of operations in Iran.
However, analysts warn the situation could change if the Lebanese group Hezbollah becomes more directly involved, potentially putting Israel’s air defenses under heavier strain.
