2026 set to become second-hottest year on record, EU climate monitor warns
Global temperatures are on course to make 2026 the second-hottest year ever recorded, as an exceptionally strong El Niño adds to human-driven climate change, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The agency also warned that global warming is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year.
The world has a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing the temperature record set in 2024, Copernicus said in its latest monthly climate bulletin released on Friday.
The service also projected that the four-year average temperature for 2023-2026 would exceed the 1.5°C threshold established under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
The threshold represents a key international target aimed at limiting the most severe consequences of global warming.
October becomes hottest on record
October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded, with average global surface air temperatures reaching 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, defined as the 1850-1900 period.
It also marked the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C level.
“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus.
She added that an exceptionally strong El Niño was contributing additional heat to a climate system already warmed by human activities.
El Niño intensifies global warming
The latest assessment comes as climate scientists warn that the current El Niño event could become the strongest ever recorded.
The natural climate phenomenon, which involves unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is expected to reach its peak later this year.
According to Copernicus, the phenomenon set a new temperature record in a key Pacific region last month.
El Niño can significantly alter global weather patterns, increasing the risk of droughts, floods and extreme temperatures in different parts of the world.
Although it is a natural climate cycle, scientists say its warming effects are now being amplified by human-induced climate change.
Forecasters have warned that the exceptionally strong El Niño could also contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record.
Climate summit opens amid growing concerns
The latest findings come as countries prepare for the United Nations' two-week COP31 climate summit in Türkiye, scheduled to begin on Monday.
The meeting follows a year marked by severe weather events, including deadly floods in Nepal, intense heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.
Climate change and the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are expected to remain central issues in international discussions.
Paris Agreement target increasingly difficult to achieve
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
However, the United Nations warned in September that the long-term 1.5°C target would be exceeded within the coming years.
Scientists stress that exceeding the threshold temporarily does not mean further climate action is pointless. They say rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those produced by burning fossil fuels, remain essential to limit the duration and severity of the overshoot.
Reducing emissions as quickly as possible will be crucial to bringing global temperatures back down and limiting the long-term consequences of climate change.
Source:turkiyetoday
