Iceland moves toward EU referendum as geopolitical tensions mount
The move comes amid renewed momentum for EU enlargement and growing geopolitical uncertainty, including US tariff measures against Iceland and renewed rhetoric by US President Donald Trump regarding Greenland. Iceland’s governing coalition had pledged to hold a referendum by 2027, but developments appear to be accelerating.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos recently said the enlargement debate is increasingly about security and Europe’s ability to act in a competitive global environment. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also met Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir in Brussels, highlighting stability and closer cooperation.
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 during the financial crisis but froze negotiations in 2013 as its economy recovered. In 2015, Reykjavik asked not to be considered a candidate country. Since then, the geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly. Iceland, strategically located in the North Atlantic and without a standing army, relies on NATO and a bilateral defense agreement with the United States.
While public support for closer EU ties appears to be growing, accession would not be without challenges. Fishing rights — a cornerstone of Iceland’s economy — remain the main potential stumbling block, as in previous negotiations. However, with the United Kingdom no longer an EU member following Brexit, the issue may be less contentious than in the past.
If Iceland votes to resume talks, negotiations could move relatively quickly. As a member of the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone, Iceland has already adopted much of EU legislation and had closed 11 of 33 negotiation chapters before talks were suspended.
Ultimately, any accession treaty would require a second referendum after negotiations conclude — a vote that could prove decisive depending on the geopolitical climate and domestic political debate at the time.
