Iran war tests expanding BRICS

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for the two-day summit on Saturday and Sunday.

The meeting comes less than two weeks before the United Nations General Assembly's high-level week and ahead of Xi's expected meeting with US President Donald Trump on Sept. 24.

Iran conflict exposes divisions

Iran's direct confrontation with Washington places BRICS members in increasingly difficult positions. The grouping operates by consensus, but its members have sharply different relationships with the United States and Iran.

"The US-Iran war will cast a shadow over the summit," said Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Members are expected to oppose unilateral and extraterritorial sanctions in principle, but experts say they are unlikely to agree on how far to challenge Washington or how to respond to additional sanctions targeting trade with Iran.

China is expected to take a harder line against US pressure, while India, Brazil and South Africa are likely to give greater weight to their economic and financial ties with Washington.

The divisions could limit the bloc's ability to produce a strong common position on the war.

Expansion raises global weight

BRICS has grown substantially since it was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined in January 2024, while Indonesia became a member in January 2025. Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam have also joined as partner countries.

The expansion has increased BRICS' geographical and economic reach and strengthened its profile as an alternative forum for countries seeking greater influence outside the traditional Western-led system.

Analysts say hostility toward Trump's policies in parts of the Global South has further increased attention on the grouping.

Members seek autonomy, not rupture

Despite growing tensions with Washington, analysts say BRICS is not emerging as a conventional anti-US alliance.

Geopolitical analyst Einar Tangen said members want greater strategic autonomy without becoming dependent on any major power.

"Members do not want a confrontation with the United States, but they don't want to be dependent on Washington, Beijing, Moscow, or any other powers," Tangen said.

The bloc is instead seeking greater resilience in trade, finance, energy and technology while maintaining links with Western economies.

India's summit theme, Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability, reflects those concerns, particularly as wars in Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, the Sahel and eastern Congo continue to disrupt global politics and economies.

Dollar alternatives remain limited

Reducing dependence on the US dollar is also expected to feature in discussions.

Experts do not see a common BRICS currency as realistic in the near term, but members are increasing the use of national currencies in trade and exploring alternative payment and settlement systems.

China and Russia have pushed strongly for reducing exposure to the dollar, while India remains more cautious because weakening the dollar without a credible alternative could increase China's financial influence.

The bloc's efforts to develop alternative payment mechanisms are therefore likely to remain gradual rather than amounting to an immediate challenge to the dollar's central role.

Western capitals watch closely

The presence of Modi, Xi, Putin and Pezeshkian under the same BRICS framework is expected to draw close attention from Western governments.

Analysts say the summit will demonstrate the bloc's growing geopolitical reach, but also expose its limits.

India and China continue to have competing strategic interests, while individual members maintain important economic and security relationships with the United States.

The central question for the summit will therefore be whether BRICS can translate its growing membership and influence into collective action, or whether national interests will continue to prevail over the bloc's broader ambitions.

Source:AA