Deaths outnumber births across most Swedish municipalities

More people died than were born in nearly 80% of Sweden’s municipalities last year, highlighting a deepening demographic shift that is spreading beyond the country’s sparsely populated areas.

According to official statistics cited by Swedish public broadcaster SVT, deaths exceeded births in 79% of municipalities in 2025.

The trend has traditionally been concentrated in rural and lightly populated areas but has now expanded across much of the country.

National decline expected

At the national level, Sweden still recorded more births than deaths last year, with 97,488 children born compared with 92,212 deaths.

However, Statistics Sweden projects that the gap will continue to narrow, with deaths expected to exceed births nationwide from 2027.

The shift comes as Sweden’s fertility rate fell to about 1.4 children per woman in 2025, the lowest level ever recorded in the country.

A fertility rate of roughly 2.1 children per woman is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population over the long term without migration.

Migration to drive population growth

Despite the expected natural decline, Sweden’s total population is projected to continue increasing.

Statistics Sweden’s main projection estimates that the population could rise from about 10.6 million in 2025 to almost 12 million by 2075.

Migration is expected to be the main driver of that growth, with more people projected to move to Sweden than leave the country in the coming years.

Without net immigration, Statistics Sweden estimates that the country’s population would decline.

The projection assumes that fertility will gradually recover to about 1.7 children per woman while life expectancy continues to increase, underscoring the growing importance of migration in Sweden’s long-term demographic outlook.

Source:AA