Illegal cigarette trade costs EU €15 billion in 2024
The EU lost nearly €15 billion in tax revenue in 2024 due to the consumption of almost 39 billion illegal cigarettes, according to a new report by KPMG commissioned by Philip Morris International (PMI).
The study, presented at a security forum in Rome, analyzed 38 European markets and found that illicit cigarettes now make up 9.2% of total consumption across EU member states—the highest level since 2015. This includes counterfeit, smuggled, and so-called illicit whites.
France tops the list, with 18.7 billion illegal cigarettes smoked in 2024—37.6% of its market—followed by sharp increases in the Netherlands. In contrast, Greece, Bulgaria, Portugal, and Ukraine recorded significant declines. In Greece, consumption fell by 6.2%, continuing a positive downward trend.
Italy remained largely stable, with just 1.8% of cigarettes consumed illegally, one of the lowest rates in the EU. However, hotspots like Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Campania continue to see concentrated activity.
PMI officials warned that high tobacco taxes may fuel illicit trade rather than reduce smoking. “Sudden tax hikes often push consumers toward black-market alternatives,” said Christos Harpantidis, PMI’s Senior VP for External Affairs. He called for balanced regulation, stronger enforcement, and public-private cooperation to fight the growing influence of criminal networks in the illicit tobacco trade.
Across the 38 countries studied, the total loss in tax revenue is estimated at over €19 billion.
